Catastrophic UN forecast: World on course for 3.1°C of warming

Luc Williams

A continuation of current policies means the world will be well on its way to temperature increase by 3.1°C before the end of the century – warns United Nations. According to Bloomberg, implementing the promised reforms would at best lead to an increase of 2.6°C – well above the level at which the tipping points for climate change will be exceeded. climate – said the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). Little progress has been made over the past few years, despite repeated calls for stronger action plans.

CO2 emissions are rising, countries are not taking action

Madagascar is the only country to present an ambitious one this year climate goal for 2030 – says UNEP. This does little to change the outlook for global emissions. “Emissions gap has not changed,” Anne Olhoff, UNEP’s chief climate advisor, said in an interview. “Countries have not responded to calls from the last three COP meetings to increase their 2030 targets, and as a result we are faced with the same emissions gap and dire temperature forecasts.”

The world has not yet managed to reverse the trend increasing CO2 emissionsand the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere increased by 1.3% last year, says UNEP. The landmark 2015 Paris Agreement set a goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and ideally to 1.5°C. To achieve the more ambitious target, countries must collectively commit to reducing emissions by 42% by the end of the decade and 57% by 2035, compared to 2019 levels.

Saudi Arabia does not want to move away from fossil fuels

The question of what more needs to be done to bend the emissions curve will remain largely unanswered at this year’s COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, which is expected to focus on how to increase climate financing from billions of dollars to trillions. The commitment to phase out fossil fuels made at last year’s summit has been questioned by Saudi Arabia, which sees it as one possible option.

Affordable transformation cost

Next year, countries are due to present updated climate plans that will be consistent with the goal of keeping global temperature rise to 1.5°C. Most of the responsibility for reducing greenhouse gas emissions rests with G20 countries, which saw emissions rise last year, accounting for almost four-fifths of total emissions.

In terms of financing, UNEP recognizes that the cost of transformation is relatively affordable. While mitigation financing must be more focused on developing countries, global investment must increase from $900 billion to $2.1 trillion annually, representing about 1% of total global economic output, to reach net zero by 2050.

Time of climate crisis

But while the 1.5°C target remains “technically possible”, the UNEP report stressed that it would require a huge effort. Another COP28 goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade is at risk due to delays in wind energy deployment. The future of climate policy in the United States (the world’s largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases) also remains uncertain with the prospect of Donald Trump winning the November elections, just days before the leaders meet in Baku.

About LUC WILLIAMS

Luc's expertise lies in assisting students from a myriad of disciplines to refine and enhance their thesis work with clarity and impact. His methodical approach and the knack for simplifying complex information make him an invaluable ally for any thesis writer.