According to Bloomberg, DNV – a Norwegian risk management company – states that global CO2 emissions they’ve probably already peaked, but the transition to clean energy remains “too slow”.
Renewable energy sources are breaking records
“Worryingly, the decline we are projecting is very far from the trajectory required to achieve the targets Paris Agreement” – wrote Remi Eriksen, CEO of DNV, in the report. “In particular, sectors that are difficult to electrify need new political impetus,” Bloomberg quotes.
While renewable energy growth is breaking records, some countries are still struggling, the report says. Bigger military expenses and difficult economic conditions mean that countries give up ambitious climate goals.
Geopolitical priorities and energy transformation
“There is a growing gap between short-term geopolitical and economic priorities and the need to accelerate the energy transition,” Eriksen added. According to DNV projections, the cost of implementation solar panels and battery technology is expected to fall by 19% by 2030, helping to deliver record amounts of low-carbon energy. A separate report from the International Energy Agency estimates that growth in solar capacity will account for 80% of global renewable energy growth by the end of the decade.
Transformation too slow
By 2030, renewable energy sources are expected to increase 2.2 times. This is well below the three-fold increase set at the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP28, warns DNV. Energy efficiency is also improving at a rate about half that recommended by the UN climate body.
DNV has cut its 2050 offshore wind forecast by 18% for the second year in a row. Higher financing costs, supply chain issues and concerns about turbine quality are to blame. Investors and developers are shifting capital towards solar energy. According to the IEA, by 2027 solar energy will overtake wind energy as the largest source of renewable energy.
In the DNV report, hydrogen forecasts were also reduced by 21% compared to last year’s estimates. The clean fuel is now expected to provide 1.5% of global energy by 2040, up from 2.6% last year’s estimate. Carbon capture technology is also not expected to make a significant contribution to emissions reductions.
