Lack of consensus on Ukraine in NATO Although declarations of support for Ukraine’s NATO membership are often heard in the public sphere, Marek Budzisz points out that in reality there is no full agreement on this issue among the members of the North Atlantic Alliance. The main obstacle remains the United States, which fears the risk of escalation of the conflict with Russia.
The inclusion of Ukraine in NATO could lead to the activation of Article 5, which commits all member states to collective defense, which would increase the risk of direct confrontation with Russia. Moreover, such steps could weaken the structure of NATO itself if there are differences in the interpretation of its commitments.
The prospect of NATO membership
According to Budzisz, the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO is currently very distant and will depend on the conditions under which the war with Russia ends. The situation may change depending on the course of the war, but at the moment Ukraine faces a long and difficult path to NATO. The issue of accession to the European Union is also not a foregone conclusion, and the conditions of admission will largely depend on the political, economic and military situation of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
The Impact of the War on Ukrainian Aspirations
Despite the ongoing war, Ukraine managed to receive significant military aid from Western countries, which allowed it to partially repel Russian attacks and even conduct offensive operations on Russian territory.
However, as Budzisz notes, these achievements have not significantly affected the strategic course of the war, which may last much longer than many politicians and observers had assumed. He compares the situation to the Iraq-Iran war, which lasted eight years, suggesting that the war in Ukraine may also prove to be a long-term conflict.
Long-term Tensions Between the West and Russia Even after the war in Ukraine ends, Budzisz predicts that tensions between Russia and the West will persist for many years. A return to the normalization of relations before 2014, much less before 2022, seems unlikely. Russia is rapidly expanding its military, which poses a permanent threat to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, including Poland. As a result, these countries, including Poland, will have to modernize and increase their defense capabilities to counter potential threats.
Poland and the Future of Security in the Region For Poland, the issue of Ukraine’s admission to NATO is of key importance for the regional balance of power. Ukraine, with its large army and strategic location, can become an important element of security in Central and Eastern Europe. Budzisz emphasizes that the countries of NATO’s eastern flank, including Poland, must increase their defense capabilities to effectively deter Russia. A broader discussion on universal military service and further armament may also be necessary to ensure an effective deterrence policy.
Ukraine as “Israel of the East”
One possible scenario Budzisz presents is Ukraine becoming the “Israel of the East” – a state with a military potential strong enough to deter Russia on its own, without the need for full NATO membership. However, such a scenario would mean that Western countries would have to provide Ukraine with constant financial and military aid for many years, which raises questions about the willingness of Western countries, including Poland, to bear such costs.
Although Ukraine is striving for NATO membership, its future in these structures is still uncertain. The accession process will depend on the outcome of the war with Russia, the condition of the Ukrainian state itself, and the willingness of Western countries to provide long-term military and financial support. Poland, as Ukraine’s neighbor, will have to adjust its security policy to the changing geopolitical situation and prepare for long-term tensions in the region.
