In 2023, trade turnover between Poland and Germany reached almost EUR 170 billion, a level similar to that of 2022. Germany is still Poland’s most important trading partner. Is there a prospect of a similar or even better result this year?
Poland is a more important partner for the German economy than China, the first half of the year showed that German exports to Poland are greater than to that country. The importance of the Polish economy for the German economy is growing.
Will this not change this year, even though the economic slowdown is visible in Germany?
Probably not, because the slowdown in Germany is primarily related to the development of the domestic situation, as well as in trade with China. Trade and cooperation with Poland and other Central European countries are growing, which is 20 percent of German foreign trade turnover.
In which sectors of the economy is there still a chance to develop this cooperation?
I see great opportunities primarily in modern sectors of the economy, including digitalization, services, etc. The cooperation to date has primarily covered heavy industry, automotive, machinery, chemical, etc. I assess economic cooperation positively and, in my opinion, it will develop even better.
Will Germany be a more important trading partner for Poland in the perspective of the end of the war than Ukraine in the future? How do you see what may happen after the end of the war?
Polish-German cooperation on Ukraine, not only currently, in matters of security and also the reconstruction of this country, is a key challenge. How it will develop is also the future of Polish-German relations.
What are the cooperation scenarios and how will they impact the shape and condition of the Polish economy?
We see that on the one hand, these classic historically conditioned sectors of the economy such as the automotive industry, the machine industry, etc. are losing their importance, while, for example, banking services are developing. For the first time, we have a situation where German partners can learn something from Polish partners. Up until now, it was the other way around. This includes innovations introduced by Polish industry, which are an example for Germany. This partnership is developing in a very good direction.
From a geopolitical and economic perspective, are Poland and Germany creating such a new tandem in Europe? Can an alliance emerge that will one day become as important as Germany and France did?
We currently have a very complicated political situation, because there is no government in France, and after the last regional elections, the German government, the central government, is also in a state of turmoil. It is therefore difficult to speculate on this topic now. But Poland’s role, political, economic, the role of Poland as a guarantor of security, is growing. In the long term, I think that Poland can be not only an equal partner for Germany and France, but in some areas this role can be much more important.
A shortened version of the interview conducted during the XXXIII Economic Forum in Karpacz. The entire interview can be viewed at forsal.pl
