Here's your morning brief – everything you need to know about what's happening in the economy right now.
Prime Minister Tusk: The government has no interest in excessive strengthening of the zloty
Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Tuesday that the Polish government had no interest in “excessive” strengthening of the zlotybecause then the competitiveness of our exports could suffer.
“Of course, we are proud that the Polish currency is strong. The zloty is stable and the strongest in a long time. But, of course, we have no interest in exaggerating it here, because we know what impact it has on export“– said Tusk. Such a statement may suggest that if the zloty continues to strengthen, at some point it will become inconvenient for the government.
It happened on Tuesday that shortly after this statement, the zloty stopped appreciating and retreated slightly. However, this was to a greater extent the “merit” of the general deterioration of sentiment on global markets after the start of the stock exchange session in the US than the words of Donald Tusk. A similar sudden pullback was also seen on stock exchanges, including Warsaw Stock Exchange.
Before euro exchange rate reached PLN 4.25, a dollar's exchange rate up to PLN 3.92.
In my opinion economists from Pekao SA The zloty has an open path to the level of PLN 4.20 per euro, and the recent strengthening can be treated as a “symbolic return to the pre-pandemic situation”. The last time the euro was this cheap was in February 2020, just before the outbreak of the pandemic, which significantly weakened the zloty in the following months.
What will happen to the exchange rate of our currency in the coming hours should depend to the greatest extent on the reaction on global markets to two upcoming events: today's US inflation report and tomorrow decisions of the European Central Bank along with the meeting of the head of this bank, Christine Lagarde. It will be easier for the zloty to strengthen further if inflation data and ECB decisions favor the euro over the dollar, and not the other way around. So it would be best if inflation in the US turned out to be lower than expected, and the ECB's statement was more hawkish than expected.
The minister removed the list of grain importers
Minister of Agriculture Czesław Siekierski removed from the ministry's website list of importers of Ukrainian grainbecause it caused too much controversy and constituted a source of risk related to possible lawsuits.
“I cannot turn back time or the decision of my predecessor, Minister Anna Gembicka, who, when making the list public, did not notice the possible harmful effects of such an action. From the moment the list was published to Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development numerous complaints, demands and expectations for corrections are received and announcements of lawsuitswhich confirmed my belief that the decision to make the list public was wrong and irresponsible,” Siekierski wrote in a statement.
Publication of the list of private companies that imported grain from Ukraine to the Polish market, was the pinnacle of political populism in Poland in recent years. Grain importsmainly in 2022, was, firstly, legal, and secondly, completely economically justified, in a situation where Polish farmers stopped selling their grain, because they were dissatisfied with the level of prices, which then began to fall. They then followed the disastrous advice of the then government Minister of Agriculture Henryk Kowalczyk and decided to wait for higher prices (which never came), holding back the grain supply. The market coped with this situation by replacing this supply with imports from Ukraine. In this context, importers ensured normal, undisturbed functioning of the Polish market. But then they were recognized in the public space responsible for the drop in grain prices on the market, which was not true, because grain was cheaper all over the world at that time. Politicians, on the other hand, want to make some money points for themselves in the election campaignbegan to demand the publication of the list of importers, the existence of which has now come to an end.
Life is getting better in CBOS research
On average, our lives are getting better and better, or at least that's what we think, as seen in new CBOS research. One third of respondents declare that lives well, or very well, i.e. it is enough for a lot without saving much. On the other hand, 15 percent of us declare that he lives rather poor, indicating the need to manage money very sparingly. The key thing is that over the last year, the percentage of those living better has increased significantly, from 27 to 33 percent, while the percentage of those living materially worse has decreased from 18 percent. up to 15 percent
According to CBOS, such a large percentage of people declaring it prosperous life The last time we had it was in 2019, just before the pandemic.
It is worth remembering that a year ago in March, when these studies were carried out, inflation was at the top, above 15 percent. and salaries in reality they dropped significantly. Then it was followed by a sharp decline inflation and increase in real wages. It was also clearly raised minimum wage.
31 percent of us are completely confident about our financial future (up from 25% a year ago), while 27% is afraid of poverty (down from 32% a year ago). 57 percent judges well material conditions in their homes (i.e. what they have, not what their income is), and 5 percent judges them badly. 20 percent respondents believe that these conditions will improve over the next year, and 16 percent he expects them to get worse.
There will be an official definition of EBITDA
Serious and significant changes are coming for stock market investorsnot to mention accountants and financial analysts. We will soon see an official definition of what it is EBITDA. Of course, today it is known that this is the case operating profit in the company increased by such costs that are recorded but do not constitute cash expenses, i.e. e.g depreciation of fixed assets. Today, however, it is not strictly established which can be taken into account when calculating EBITDAand what cannot be achieved, so in each company this profit may mean something different.
This is why International Accounting Standards Board she just decided that will strictly define how to calculate EBITDA and that these guidelines will come into force from 2027. According to Reuters, around 50,000 countries around the world follow the rules published by the Council. companies in 147 countries, the vast majority of them listed companies (although these rules do not apply in the United States, which has its own set of regulations).
After international standardization of EBITDA it will be easier compare companies listed on different stock exchanges in this respect and it will not lead to wrong conclusions, as has sometimes happened so far. He is probably the most famous critic in the world of current practices related to calculating EBITDA Warren Buffett, which called it “misleading data.” His business partner Charlie Mugner was more blunt and used to say “bullshit earnings” when referring to EBITDA, which everyone can translate for themselves.
Minister Hennig-Kloska announces maximum electricity prices
After July unfreezing electricity prices in Poland, the government will introduce an upper ceiling that will constitute a ceiling for them limit and it will function as maximum price – she announced Minister of Climate and Environment Paulina Hennig-Kloska.
“This is one of the elements freezing prices, but this element of freezing that will allow us to “cut down chimneys”. We thought so additional cover is needed to make this price truly acceptable for everyone,” Hennig-Kloska said. In addition, she repeated her previous announcements, i.e. the introduction of support for poorer farms in the form of energy voucherand the introduction of facilitating provisions changing the electricity tariff during the yearalthough really The energy regulatory office still today it can do so on the basis of applicable regulations “in exceptional situations”. President of the Energy Regulatory Office Moreover, he clearly announced that the tariff would be reduced so that the price increase resulting from unfreezing would be smaller.
The Standing Committee of the Council of Ministers is to deal with the draft bill on support for energy consumers tomorrow.
