New trends of disinformation
Last year, researchers from the Institute of Political Sciences of the University of Warsaw implemented the project “The impact of Russian disinformation on shaping public opinion in Eastern European countries – analysis and counteraction strategies.” The aim of the project was to examine the mechanisms of Russian disinformation as hybrid tool in Moldova and Georgia and developing specific strategies to counteract these threats.
As noted by Dr. Hab. Wojciech Kotowicz from the Institute of Political Sciences at the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Warsaw, during the research, scientists identified several basic trends that will shape the disinformation landscape in the near future. These include the increasingly common use of artificial intelligence to generate false content.
Operation Matryoshka in Moldova
– Operation Matryoshka, which we studied in the context of Moldova, was one of the first campaigns nand such a large scale using AI to create deepfakes, fake press articles and conversation botswhich were virtually indistinguishable from real users. This technology is becoming more and more available and sophisticated, the scientist noted.
As he described, there have already been recorded cases of deepfake videos showing European politicians speaking in a way that has never happened before, but the quality of these materials was so high that even experts had difficulty identifying them.
Personalizing disinformation
Another trend is the personalization of disinformation. – Thanks advanced data analytics and user profiling, Russian disinformation campaigns can now deliver different narratives to different audiencesmaximizing its effectiveness. During research in Georgia, we found that the same disinformation campaign was exploiting completely different arguments depending on whether it was addressed to urban or rural residents, young or old, religious or secular people – he explained.
– For older rural residents, the narrative focused on the threat to traditional values and religion, while for young urban residents, economic arguments and fears of loss of sovereignty were used. This segmentation makes countering disinformation much more difficult, because we are not dealing with one coherent narrative, but with many tailored messages, he pointed out.
He gave an example of the situation in Moldova, where researchers have observed how for years a narrative was built about the corruption of pro-European eliteswhich ultimately translated into significant support for pro-Russian options in the elections. This was not the result of one election campaign, but the result of a systematic, long-term effort.
Russian disinformation in Poland
According to Wojciech Kotowicz, it is similar in Poland. – Russian disinformation does not only focus on current events, but tries to build long-term narratives that question our European and Atlantic identity – he noticed.
– We have to be ready for that disinformation will exploit real problems and social frustrations. The most effective disinformation is not completely false, it is based on real issues, such as inflation, housing crisis, social inequality; and presents simplified, populist solutions, often blaming the West, the European Union or local elites, he emphasized.
Strong internal social and political divisions feed the mill of Russian disinformation
According to the researcher, Russian disinformation is most successful where it hits a ground of strong internal social and political divisions. – Russia is not trying to impose a single narrative, but creates a multitude of contradictory messages to cause cognitive chaos and a sense of helplessness in the recipient – he concluded.
The grant for the implementation of the UMW research project was awarded by the Dialogue Center. Juliusz Mieroszewski as part of the 3rd Open Competition. The project was implemented from June 1 to October 31 last year. by a research team from the Institute of Political Sciences. The project manager was Dr. Wojciech Kotowicz, and the following experts also took part: prof. Ph.D. Arkadiusz Żukowski, Ph.D. Waldemar Tomaszewski, prof. UWM, Ph.D. Krzysztof Żęgota, prof. UWM and dr hab. Marcin Chełminiak, prof. UWM.
