High quality and competitive price played a key role in global trade after World War II, but the increase in geopolitical tensions and the return of protectionism forces entrepreneurs to change business and export strategies. How to move in this reality? Where does the economy end and politics begins and can business affect the terms of trade? Who is giving the cards: USA, China, or maybe Europe?
In the moderated debate by Zbigniew Bartusia They shared their knowledge and opinions: Michał Baranowski, Undersecretary of State at the Ministry of Development and Technology (MRIT), Paweł Dziekoński, Vice President of the FAKRO Board, and dr Krzysztof Mazur, President of the Board of the Council of Polish Global Entrepreneurs (RPPG).
FAKRO: We decided to build a factory in the USA a year ago
In the last two years, many Polish exporters have been looking for an alternative to the survivor of the German market. Some of them decided on expansion to the USA, as a result of which there was a significant increase in commercial exchange with America last year: When exports to Germany fell by nearly 4 percent, it increased by over 6 percent. This does not change the fact that the value of exports from Poland to Germany is still higher than the total export value to five more of our largest trading partners combined. However, evolution is visible.
– The United States is a very good market for Polish entrepreneurs. Americans positively perceive the quality of products from Poland, and at the same time are known for the expectation of price attractiveness, and we were able to provide both. In the US we compete, but we also cooperate with American entities, for years we have built a strong position on a good price shelf, so we are of the opinion that in the realities of the confusion with the duties it is not worth panicing, but you have to react calmly to be able to continue to develop in this market – argued Paweł Dziekoński.
He noticed that – according to the experience of recent weeks – Decisions on duties can be suspended and ultimately canceled. American administration talks are underway with the EU and other countries. Chaos and uncertainty are not good for business, but a global company, like Fakro, which in the past could face several world crises, learned to move, invest and develop in the realities of uncertainty.
– Over a year ago, we decided that our participation in the American market is so large that it is worth building a production plant there. Interestingly, we had the opposite situation there than in Nowy Sącz, where we are blocking the building permit: in the US we quickly got all permits and a subsidy for the construction of the plant, as a result of which we will produce our products with the “Made in USA” logo in days. This strongly strengthens our position – admits Vice President Fakro. He added that duties on ready -made products and their components (e.g. metal parts) will definitely make it difficult for producers from outside the USA to maintain their current prices, which threatens them to fall out of the market.
Minister: The EU listens to Poland and has a plan
– We are at the time of complete re -evaluation of the approach to global trade, but we do not yet know what world will get out of it. A lot depends on the European Union’s activities. Trade policy is the domain of the European Commission and from my experience – as a person who often represents Poland in discussions – it is clear that there is a very high openness on the part of the EC to listen to Poland. We have a good understanding of the United States, good relations with Washington, and at the same time we are very focused on strengthening European unity and strength – emphasized Michał Baranowski.
He admitted that under the influence of Donald Trump’s policy Europe has taken many very specific actions to ensure not only security in a military sense, but also in other dimensions, which means, above all, strengthening economic immunity. On the one hand, the new strategy of the European Union assumes the abolishing of barriers to the European Union market, and on the other much better protection of entrepreneurs against unfair competition. A very important element of this strategy is the desire to get along with the United States – there is an offer on the table regarding the duties “zero for zero”, but the EU also has a plan B.
The minister pointed out that everyone in Europe is fully aware of the challenges related to the possible blocking of the American market for products from China. We are then threatened with a flood of Chinese products at totally low prices, especially since the production potential of the Middle Kingdom is constantly increasing, and internal demand is weakening. The EU also has an action plan for this possibility.
– The European Commission got a very clear ticket during the last meeting of foreign ministers and trade to monitor Chinese imports, and in case an increase, which is unpredictable, react. We focus not on protectionism, but on guarding our garden, and on the other hand to open the American market, but also other markets, such as India, Latin America, Asia – said the deputy minister of development and technology.
Polish companies become independent of the German market
Dr Krzysztof Mazur, recalling the famous book of the leading German economic commentator Wolfgang Münchau “Kaput. End of the German economic miracle”, reminded that the problem of the German economy did not appear in the last year or two, but is the result of the adoption of a specific economic model. This model would have been exhausted a long time ago, were it not for the extension of the European Union to the countries of the former Eastern Bloc – especially Poland – and huge deliveries of cheap gas from Russia.
– The author writes that “in Germany nineteenth -century companies produce twentieth -century goods”, i.e. the economy did not enter in the 21st century. This book has become a very important reading among Polish entrepreneurs who perfectly understand how the effects of further excessive dependence on such an economy may be deplorable – the expert argued, indicating, among others for the automotive sector.
He emphasized that surprisingly many native companies were able to predict the overwhelming crisis over the Rhine and took numerous actions in advance to limit its effects. – They were successively switched to other markets and today this German shock is much smaller than it would be 5 or 10 years ago – said the president of the RPPG.
– As for the policy of Donald Trump, it is worth listening to Krzysztof Domarecki, president of Selena, who advises to wait for the battle dust fall. For now, a sense of chaos and uncertainty dominates, there is a lot of speculation, Nobody knows what the new world will look like. One can only risk the thesis that the first collision of “Trump vs. Globalization” ended with the victory of globalization – said Krzysztof Mazur, noting that the great dependence of American companies on imports from around the world hit the American stock exchange and enterprises operating directly in the back of Donald Trump.
– Everyone understands that Americans would like to have more production in their area, but the effects of 40 years of development of a certain economic model cannot be turned into one season, even using very strong tools – added the head of RPGG.
He admitted that part of the Polish business is beginning to see the opportunities for the development and international expansion in the process of rearming Poland and Europe; Even companies that have not yet operated in the broadly understood arms industry express interest in entering the supply chains working for the needs of the army. The expert reserved that a lot depends on political decisions, including the new public procurement formula.
Polish business: The state must provide us with fair conditions
Paweł Dziekoński emphasized that in order to succeed abroad, he must first be achieved in his country, conquer his own market. Polish companies have always had a problem with this, because – as Rafał Brzoska established and what Polish business has been saying for a long time – “foreign entities are preferred in Poland.” – Now the situation can be even more difficult, because the main market in Europe has been the German market for global concerns. There are production powers, there are supplies of ready goods and I am afraid that in the realities of the German crisis producers will sell everything for a fire in Central and Eastern European countries, including Poland. Reason? We have a very poor competition system – said Fakro vice president, strongly criticizing both regulations and UOKiK practices.
– We have examples from many industries proving that Polish companies do not really have any possibility of protecting against dishonest competition – both from EU companies and and and third countries. The activities of foreign entities or their impact on the Polish market are not monitored at all, what is just about reacting. Something that is normal in Western countries does not exist with us – said Paweł Dziekoński.
– If Prime Minister Tusk says that we must start thinking in categories of national interest in the economy, then let’s start by creating the right conditions for the development of Polish companies. It cannot be that a foreign investor has a red carpet spread with us, and Polish companies are blocking the construction of a new factory. We will not create global champions – warned Dr. Krzysztof Mazur.
– In the offices of European Commissioners, I hear that Poland has a key role to play in Europe and in the world: they see in our companies, in this government, in the person of the prime minister – 120 percent of motivation to disassemble the regulatory barriers on the internal market, and at the same time better protect the clean rules of the game and strengthen the competitiveness of European companies. We have a great reputation in Europe and we use the fact that the influence of Poland, including Polish entrepreneurs, on what the new world will be, is greater than ever – said Michał Baranowski. He expressed the belief that the Polish presidency launched a machine of changes and the deregulation impetus would be supported in subsequent terms – both at EU level and within the Member States, because similar deregulation packages, like the one branded by Rafał Brzoska, are created in Germany, France, Italy and other countries.
– We have been running this business for 34 years, so we have many similar declarations behind us. We approach them with hope, but also with a great dose of healthy skepticism, because this is what experience tells us. I am one thing: only strong leadership and quick, uncompromising decisions can push us in the right direction. I must admit that we are counting on a definite attitude and authentic activity of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. It would be terrible if this process got stuck at the level of intra -alauline and clerical “niedheic”. But if the prime minister enters it with full conviction, success is possible – said Vice President Fakro.
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