“For a man who supposedly won an election, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro looks worried. The flashy tracksuit he wore for much of the campaign has been swapped for a formal business suit. He appears irritable and exhausted in repeated televised tirades criticizing his “fascist” enemies. Days after a rigged election, it remains unclear whether he can remain in power.”
The Economist published a version according to which the United States government offered the Venezuelan regime, headed by Nicolás Maduro, to leave Venezuela in exchange for “whatever it wants.”
“One source says the US has said that if Maduro resigns “we will give him whatever he wants”, including a promise not to demand his extradition. However, they admit that Maduro is unlikely to resign unless pressured. Others suggest that the parties may have to settle for holding new elections. Ms Machado (Maria Corina) and other opposition leaders would rightly oppose this,” the London-based outlet said in a statement. “The military’s bloated leadership benefits from Maduro’s crony capitalism. He has repeatedly warned the military that it has much to lose by abandoning him. Venezuela’s future depends on whether they believe him or not.”
“Whether Maduro admits defeat depends on three interconnected factors. The first is domestic unrest. The second concerns attempts by Brazil, Colombia and Mexico to jointly mediate a solution between the opposition and the regime. (The Economist spoke to several diplomats familiar with the negotiations, who asked to remain anonymous.) The regime’s willingness to participate in talks depends on a third factor: the loyalty of the armed forces. Start with the protesters. The opposition has sought to show that the election was stolen by collecting actas, the individual receipts that each voting machine prints out. Despite concerted efforts to stop them, volunteers smuggled out actas, in some cases stuffing them in their underwear. In total, the opposition collected four-fifths of the printouts and put them online. They show that González received more than 7 million votes to Maduro’s paltry 3 million.”
“An alternative source of pressure could come from the governments of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. Left-wing leaders in all three countries have had close ties to Maduro. The hope is that this will give them more influence. They are pushing a two-pronged strategy: getting the regime to publish detailed voting results and setting up direct discussions between the opposition and Maduro. The presidents of all three countries have called for an “impartial verification” of the results, though it is unclear what counts as impartial. Their task is devilishly difficult, not least because the strategy has loopholes and the trio is less united than it appears. For one, no deadline has been set for the regime to produce evidence on the vote count. The delay plays into the regime’s hands as it waits for the opposition’s momentum to wane. In theory, the next president will be sworn in on January 10. There is also little progress in the talks. “María Corina has told us clearly: ‘Why am I going to negotiate election results when the Venezuelan people have already decided?’” says a foreign official involved in the negotiations. The regime is also not interested. One idea is to exclude Machado from the discussions on the grounds that González is more acceptable to the government. However, this is “close to a last-ditch effort,” another observer admits.
In an interview with ‘Vicky en SEMANA’, Gaby Arellano, a former Venezuelan deputy who has taken refuge in Bogotá, said that there is some basis for this version. “Everything that is necessary for the transition must be done. There are guarantees for those who leave those responsible for the tyranny alone. If what ‘The Economist’ says is true, it is because of the needs of the Venezuelan people.” Arellano added that she did know the version of the English media, while saying that, for her, the key lies in Mexico, Brazil and Colombia, with their presidents, so that “Maduro moves away from barbarism.”
The full interview with Gaby Arellano:
“Even if a meeting between the rival camps is arranged, the goals remain unclear. One source says the US has said that if Maduro steps down “we will give him whatever he wants,” including a promise not to demand his extradition. It is not even clear whether the leaders of Brazil and Mexico believe Maduro lost. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, known as Lula, has expressed confidence in the ability of Venezuela’s courts, packed with regime cronies, to verify the results and described the election as “normal.” Mexico’s government appears even more reluctant to condemn the fraud. Fractures between outside powers contrast with Maduro’s government, which is “very united at the moment,” according to the official in the talks,” the English media stressed.
