PLN 6.25/l and PLN 6.43/l are current average retail fuel prices in Poland and they are the highest since August 2024. During the week, the price of Pb95 petrol increased by PLN 14/l and diesel by PLN 18/l. The average retail price of autogas increased by PLN 0.6/l per week to the average level of PLN 3.28/l.
Average price level of Pb95 petrol and diesel in Poland it may increase by 10-15 gr/l.
What is causing the price increase?
The increase in fuel prices is a direct effect increasingly expensive crude oil. On Friday morning, Brent crude oil was trading at around USD 81/bbl. In total, since December 19, when the US extended sanctions on tankers transporting Iranian crude oil, prices have increased by nearly USD 10/bbl. Currently, the market is wondering about the real impact of the recent US and UK sanctions, aimed mainly at the Russian oil and energy sector. Another 183 vessels were added to the blacklist, over 160 of which were tankers carrying Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan crude oil. In 2024, according to S&P Global data, they transported on average approximately 1.6 million bbl/d of crude oil and 0.2 million bbl/d of petroleum products, including approximately 1.5 million bbl/d of Russian crude oil, most of which went to to Asian markets, China and India. This represented approximately 24% of Russia’s total exports of crude oil and petroleum products and over 40% of Russian crude oil exports by sea.
How many tankers have been blacklisted?
Number of units included in the list Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury increased to 456 tankers and 18 LPG carriers. Apart from the increase in oil prices on financial markets, the first effect of the sanctions is a more than four-fold increase in the cost of transporting Russian oil from the Far Eastern Russian port of Kozmino to China and a decrease in the price differential of Russian ESPO crude oil in relation to the regional benchmark Dubai by more than USD 7/bbl to around USD 9. -USD 10/bbl.
Here are the long-term oil price forecasts
Meanwhile American EIA expects a systematic decline in oil prices in the next two years. In 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be USD 74 bbl (compared to USD 84/bbl in 2024). In 2026, it is expected to drop to USD 66/bbl. The main reason for the price decline is the forecasted higher growth rate of crude oil supply than consumption. In 2025, global fuel supply is expected to increase by 1.8 million bbl/d, and in 2026 by 1.5 million bbl/d. The forecast growth rate of consumption is 1.3 million bbl/d and 1.1 million bbl/d, respectively. Global crude oil stocks are expected to decline by 0.5 million bbl/d in the first quarter of this year alone. In the next three quarters of 2025, EIA expects global crude oil stocks to increase at a rate of 0.5 million bbl/d. In 2026, the growth rate of global oil stocks is expected to accelerate to 0.74 million bbl/d.
(ISBnews/BM Reflex)
