Benchmark contracts for gas in Amsterdam (ICE Endex Dutch TTF) drops by 2.8%. up to EUR 49.32 per MWh. Stock index futures halted their gains on Friday, but they are still on track to end the week up more than 50%.
The implied volatility of European benchmark gas futures, a measure of the cost of options underlying the contracts, has more than quadrupled since the start of 2026 and it is currently close to its highest level since the summer of 2023.
Silan competition for LNG supplies
The war between Israel and the US against Iranit has spread over the entire region, it has been going on for the seventh day, and there is no end in sight, and energy trade disruptions have raised fears of intense competition for supplies and stronger inflationary pressures, particularly in Europe.
The region’s gas market is particularly sensitive as it emerges from winter with empty gas tanks. This means it will have to buy more sea cargo this summer to replenish them, competing with buyers from Asia for a limited pool of LNG suppliesif cargoes from the Middle East do not reach global markets.
“If you want an additional ship of U.S. gas in Berlin, you need to offer a high enough price to divert it away from Tokyo,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a report.
Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz almost completely ceased
Prices are much lower than records achieved during the energy crisis, above EUR 300 per megawatt hour. Still, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz almost completely stopped, forcing dozens of fully loaded oil and gas tankers to remain in the Persian Gulf. The route typically accounts for about one-fifth of global LNG supplies.
The market is afraid of an energy shock
Concerns that a wider conflict in the Middle East may cause an energy shock, raise inflation and delay interest rate cuts, have put pressure on markets this week. The conflict has spread to the Middle East’s key energy sector, causing disruptions to oil production and the closure of refineries and natural gas liquefaction plants.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with NBC News that his country did not intend to negotiate and was ready for a ground invasion, while Trump later commented on the same station that he was not considering such a step. Meanwhile, Israel launched another wave of attacks on Iran, and Saudi Arabia and Qatar reported intercepting drones and missiles.
