Last year Germans bought goods and services from us for EUR 80.3 billion (an increase of 2.5%), and they sold it for EUR 89.2 billion (a decrease of 3.8%). This means that the total turnover amounted to EUR 169.5 billion, by 0.9 percent. less than in 2022
“Trade volume thus reflects the economic slowdown that we have seen in 2023, especially in Germany,” says Lars Gutheil, Managing Director Polish-German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (AHK Polska) in Warsaw.
The data quoted comes from German Federal Statistical Office. Polish central statistical center, i.e Central Statistical Office (GUS)Poland’s trade data for the entire year 2023 will be released on Thursday, February 15.
Only Germany trades more than with Poland with China (253 billion euros)USA (252 billion euros), Netherlands (215 billion euros) i France (EUR 186 billion). Noteworthy is last year’s significant drop in imports from China (by almost 20%), which means that the Middle Kingdom is only EUR 1 billion ahead of the USA as the largest trading partner of our Western neighbors.
Nearshoring strengthens trade ties
As AHK Polska emphasizes, trade exchange between our countries remains at a “very high level”, and Poland’s advantage over Germany’s 6th largest trading partner, i.e. Italy, has increased even further.
“Poland in particular occupies an increasingly important position as a supplier – whether due to an increase in the quantity of the goods themselves or their higher added value. Poland also benefits thanks to high-class investments that are increasingly transforming the country into an important economic center of the European Union” – says Gutheil and adds that our turnover balance is influenced, among others, by: gradual restructuring of supply chains around the world.
“Moving production closer to end markets, i.e. nearshoring, makes Poland more and more interesting for the German SME sector. It is therefore very likely that in the future production for the German market will increase further” – says the director.
The barrier of EUR 100 billion is approaching
As data from the German Federal Statistical Office show, the value of German sales in Poland has been in an overall increasing trend for several years. Although there was a slight slowdown last year, when comparing 2023 with 2019, we see as much as 35%. growth.
Perhaps 2024 will be the first year in history when the value of goods and services that Germany will sell to Poland will exceed the psychological barrier of EUR 100 billion.
German export to Poland / Forsal.pl / Patryk Koch
What may also be surprising is the fact that Germany sells more to Poland than to e.g. Great Britain, Italy or Spain, i.e. countries that are not only richer than Poland, but also with a larger population.
Germany is crucial for Poland
For many years, Germany has remained the absolutely dominant recipient of our goods and services. Central Statistical Office data for the period January-November 2023 show that Germany accepts as much as 28 percent. our exports (the Czech Republic is second only to 6.3 percent) and that they are responsible for 19.9 percent. our imports (second China – 13.9%)
As AKH points out, the prospects for 2024 regarding trade turnover between both countries are favorable.
As forecast Institute of the World Economy in Kielwhich is one of the main German analytical centers in the field of economy, Germany’s GDP will increase by 0.9% in 2024 and by 1.2% in 2025. The Institute expects a revival in international trade and increased demand for German products abroad.
As the managing director emphasizes Polish-German Chamber of Industry and Commerce, Many Polish companies look with hope at the development of the situation in Germany in the coming quarters.
“(…) the plans of the new Polish government, for example in areas such as energy transformation and digitalization in enterprises, offer excellent business opportunities for German suppliers. The impetus for this may be the payment of EU funds that have been suspended in recent years,” says Gutheil.
