Fuel will be more expensive
Fuel prices at stations will increase by up to several cents per liter next week due to geopolitical tensions, which translate into rising crude oil prices and the weakening zloty, according to a market commentary by Reflex analysts. As assessed by experts retail fuel prices will increase by 10-15 cents per liter next week.
We are already seeing increases in fuel prices on the wholesale market, but soon it will also be more expensive at gas stations – note Reflex analysts. The geopolitical risk increases after Tuesday’s talks in Geneva and the lack of agreement between the US and Iran oil prices increase to the highest level since July last year. Simultaneously The Polish zloty is depreciating against the USDand all this almost guarantees us more expensive fuels on the domestic market.
Diverse situation at gas stations
This week the situation at stations was clearly different. We have already seen price increases, but prices were still stable at many stations. On average, we paid 2-3 gr/l more for petrol and diesel oil than a week ago, and 4 gr/l for autogas. Taking into account the scale of price increases already recorded in wholesale and their probable further increase, next week the increases at gas stations will be more noticeable. Gasoline prices may increase on average by 10 gr/l, diesel oil by 15 gr/l and autogas by 4 gr/l.
Average fuel prices on February 19 this year:
• Unleaded petrol 95: PLN 5.67/l (+2 gr/l)
• Unleaded petrol 98: PLN 6.43/l (+3 gr/l)
• Diesel fuel: PLN 5.92/l (+2 gr/l)
• Autogas: PLN 2.76/l (+4 gr/l)
Forecast for the period 23-27/02/2026:
• Pb95 – PLN 5.67/l (+10 gr/l)
• Pb98 – PLN 6.53/l (+10 gr/l)
• ON – PLN 6.07/l (+15 gr/l)
• LPG – PLN 2.80/l (+4 groszy/l)
A week on the oil market
The week on the oil market is marked by geopolitics. Last week, the prices of the April series of Brent crude oil contracts set new this year’s highs of around USD 72/bbl and are the highest since July 2025. On the morning of Friday, February 20, oil prices are stable and the market is waiting for further developments between the US and Iran.
The second round of Iranian-American negotiations in Geneva did not bring a solution satisfactory to the American side, and therefore the risk of an American attack on Iran increased. The US wants Iran to make concessions regarding its nuclear program and ballistic missile development. Iran, in turn, wants to lift American sanctions. Due to the tightening of sanctions, a systematic decline in Iranian exports has been observed for nearly 4 months. In January, exports averaged 1.3-1.4 million bbl/d. Additionally, the amount of unsold Iranian crude oil stored on tankers increased 2-3 times during the year.
Therefore, the geopolitical risk premium is growing, and the market is concerned about the impact of a potential US-Iran military conflict on the supply of oil and LNG from the Persian Gulf region through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran. An average of 20 million bbl/d of crude oil and petroleum products flows through the Strait of Hormuz, representing approximately 27% of global maritime trade in crude oil and fuels. The largest OPEC producers, i.e. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, transport their crude oil this way. Alternative transport options are very limited and are estimated at approximately 15-25% of the volume currently flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have oil pipelines bypassing the strait, but their capacity is insufficient.
Additionally, approximately 20% of global LNG trade is also transported through the Strait of Hormuz.
More than 80% of the crude oil and LNG transported through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asian markets, and key customers are China and India. Approximately 40-50% of the crude oil sent to China is transported this way. It is also the main route for transporting LNG from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Qatar’s share in global LNG exports reaches 20%.
Still, despite its readiness to attack Iran, the US does not rule out a diplomatic solution to the controversial issue of the development of Iran’s nuclear program, although Iran has less and less time to accept the American proposal.
(ISBnews/Reflex)
