PIE: Monthly Business Conditions Index (MIK) down. Nevertheless, optimism still prevails

Luc Williams

The Monthly Business Cycle Index (MIK), which examines the mood of Polish enterprises, fell by 0.9 points m/m to 101.1 in March this year, the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) reported. 27% expect changes for the better in the country's economy, and 23% expect changes for the worse. enterprises.

This year's March MIK is 4.3 points higher than the reading from a year ago (96.8 points). Indicators regarding employments, remuneration, production capacity and financial liquidity reached levels above neutral (100 points). Despite the decline in MIK, positive sentiment prevails in most industries trade, production and constructionespecially in medium and large enterprises, it was reported.

“Although in March we recorded a slight deterioration in the mood of entrepreneurs, the MIK is still above the neutral level (100), which means that in relation to most components, the mood is still optimistic. This especially applies to wages and salaries. financial liquidity. A positive phenomenon is the fact that the decline in new orders does not negatively affect employment in companies, and the favorable financial liquidity of companies is a good prognosis for investments. “The conclusion that entrepreneurs see the future of their company more positively than the future of the country's economic situation also encourages cautious optimism,” she said. UrsulaKłosiewicz-Górecka from the Economic Foresight Team PIEquoted in the announcement.

All right? Yes 4 out of 7

In the March MIK reading, just like in February, the values ​​in four of the seven observed components are above the neutral level. These are indicators for employment, wages, production capacity and financial liquidity. Two of the above increased m/m: wages (117.5 points, increase by 5.1 points m/m) and financial liquidity (121.5 points, increase by 6.7 points m/m). The next two components that are above the neutral level in March, although they recorded declines m/m but improved their results y/y are: employment (104.7 points, decrease by 1.7 points m/m, increase by 5.3 points y/y) and production capacity (101.3 points, decrease by 0.4 points m/m, increase by 7.9 points y/y).

The March MIK indicators for industries recorded a decline m/m, with the exception of trading enterprises, which recorded an increase in the index by 9.7 points m/m to 109.4 points. Positive readings on employment and wages, production capacity and financial liquidity contributed to the improvement of the mood in commercial enterprises. Positive moods also prevail in construction (102.5 points, a decrease of 3.5 points m/m) and in production (100.5 points, a decrease of 5.2 points m/m), it was also indicated.

Do we see the future of the company in brighter colors than the future of the country?

“Companies see the future of their company better than… economic situation of the country. One third of entrepreneurs believe that the situation in their companies will improve in the next three months, only 12 percent expects a deterioration, and nearly half do not expect any changes. Large companies are the least optimistic about their future. While nearly one third of enterprises of other sizes expect their situation to improve, only 16% of representatives of large companies believe so. However, as many as 74 percent does not expect any significant changes in his company in the period March-May. 27% expect changes for the better in the country's economy, and 23% expect changes for the worse. enterprises. However, for 16 percent The country's future economic situation is difficult to predict,” it concluded.

MIK is created on the basis of measurements in seven key areas of enterprise activity: sales value, new orders, employment, wages, production capacity, investment expenditure, financial situation on a representative sample of 500 enterprises in four size categories and five industry categories. MIK levels have values ​​in the range <0;200>, and the reference point of the indicator is the reading of 100, which is a neutral level.



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