Decisions of the Federal Reserve and monetary policy in Poland Professor Kochalski referred to the recent actions of the Fed, which surprised financial markets by reducing interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, which influenced expectations related to monetary policy in the world. Kochalski emphasized that the Monetary Policy Council always takes into account international data and decisions, but internal economic conditions, such as core inflation, which still remains high in Poland, are of key importance. Therefore, although the Monetary Policy Council is monitoring the actions of other central banks, it does not anticipate quick reductions in interest rates until inflation is brought under control.
The impact of national crises on the economy
During the conversation, a question also arose about the impact of natural disasters, such as floods, on inflation and monetary policy. Kochalski pointed out that such events may have a significant impact on the economy, especially in the context of rising food prices, although at the moment it is difficult to estimate the full consequences of the flood. NBP takes these factors into account in its forecasts, but we will have to wait for the final conclusions.
Monetary policy 2020-2024: unprecedented challenges Kochalski noted that the years 2020-2024 were an exceptional period for monetary policy, not only in Poland, but also around the world. Changing conditions such as the pandemic, energy crisis and global economic turmoil posed a huge challenge. However, as he emphasized, Polish monetary policy was effective, which is confirmed by the reports of rating agencies. He recalled that in 2021-2022, the National Bank of Poland raised interest rates eleven times, and inflation, despite difficulties, was gradually coming under control.
Forecasts for the future
In the long term, NBP assumes that inflation will return to the target in 2026, although much depends on the development of the situation both in the country and internationally. Kochalski emphasized that factors such as energy prices, labor costs and the government’s fiscal policy will have a decisive influence on future decisions. The professor noted that although inflation scenarios are currently more optimistic than in previous months, any changes, such as interest rate cuts, will only be possible if inflation targets are maintained.
