Meteorologists warn
“It is forecast that (upcoming) the season will be warmer than the 10-year and 30-year normsbut colder than last year,” said Matthew Dross, a meteorologist at the Maxar forecasting company. Latest October forecasts they assume France, Britain and Scandinavia will be there the coldest parts of Europe.
On the other hand southeastern Europe and southern Spain they will likely remain warm, say experts at Maxar Technologies. Athenswhich were hit hard by heatwaves and fires in the summer, may record temperatures up to 32°C earlier this month, according to Weather Services International.
Weather for geopolitics
A series of mild winters helped Europe survive energy crisis after the explosion war in Ukraine in 2022 and made it easier for EU countries to cope with dependence on Russian gas. Stronger temperature drops in the winter season can continue to put pressure on power networks on the continent, a La Niña usually brings lower winter temperatures to Europe.
Northwest Europe will see below average temperatures in October. Temperature anomaly compared to the 30-year average / Bloomberg
La Niña will begin in November
There are 83 percent chances of La Niña, cyclical cooling of the Pacificwill affect the world’s weather from November, through December and into January. At the beginning of September, synoptic models showed only 74%. risk of this phenomenon occurring, it reported last month US Climate Prediction Center. This phenomenon may lead to droughts in California, Brazil and Argentina and rain in Indonesia and Australia.
“A weak/moderate La Niña event is forecast in winter, which generally means lower than normal temperatures in Western Europe. So we expect cooler periods in November and December” said Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist at the forecasting company Atmospheric G2.
A snowy winter awaits us
Pedrini added that relatively cool temperatures and above-normal rainfall could bring more snowfall in some parts of the continent. Last month than the Genoese and Boris storms dropped 1.5 meters of snow in the Austrian Alps.
La Niña threatens further waves of flooding
According to Dross, a La Niña phenomenon may also occur reduce wind speed as winter approacheswhich will affect renewable energy production. High pressure west of Africa will remain almost stationary, forcing storms to move through North Atlantic to western and northern Europe every few days until at least mid-October, says Tyler Roys, a meteorologist at AccuWeather. Some tropical systems will be absorbed by these storms, eh will lead to heavy rainfall.
“Some of these systems are likely to move toward Europe, which will cause significant uncertainty in weather models and could also disrupt the overall pattern,” said Atmospheric G2’s Pedrini.