A turnaround in the energy policy of Scandinavia’s largest economy, which would involve the first massive expansion of nuclear reactors in over 40 years, now seems less likely.
Amazing The government’s expensive and time-consuming plan assumes that nuclear reactors will be the main elements of the energy system until the next century, when everything from transportation to heavy industry will be electrified.
However, there is growing uncertainty about how much electricity the Swedish economy will actually need in the coming decades.
The green technology revolution is faltering
Producers of fossil-free steel, batteries for electric vehicles, green hydrogen and a potential marine fuel, e-methanol, are expected to contribute to the increase in energy demand.
Meanwhile, the first European battery manufacturer Northvolt AB, is struggling to survive and has limited all expansion plans. At the same time, a giant iron ore LKAB scales back plans to produce fossil-free sponge iron at a plant in northern Sweden.
These obstacles cast a shadow over the forecast underlying the government’s plans, which predicts doubling electricity consumption to approximately 300 terawatt hours over the next two decades.
Gigantic costs
New reactors were a central election pledge in 2022. But given that technologies such as solar and wind energy are becoming cheaperbetting everything on one nuclear card is a huge risk. Especially since critics claim that energy storage and other rapidly developing technologies could offset weather-dependent energy sources.
Moreover, the construction of large nuclear power plants generates enormous costs, as shown by the reactor projects already implemented in Europe, the costs of which have increased rapidly and the implementation date is significantly delayed.
Swedes have an ambivalent attitude towards nuclear power
In a society that has an ambivalent attitude towards nuclear energy, gigantic investments in nuclear energy are not popular.
Since the first commercial reactor came online in 1972, grassroots opposition to nuclear power has been growing in Sweden. In the following years, this opposition culminated in a referendum in 1980 calling for the dismantling of all reactors. Ultimately, the reactors were not dismantled.
Currently, six units are still in operation, providing about one third of the country’s electricity. Hydropower has a larger share in the energy mix in Sweden, accounting for almost half of the energy produced. However, the growing share of weather-dependent renewable energy sources has led to price volatility, imbalances and a lack of available grid capacity. According to the center-right cabinet, nuclear energy must be the solution to this problem.
The government wants ten new reactors
The government wants ten reactors, with four planned for the first wave of expansionstarting in about a decade. The initial outlay would be around 6%. Sweden’s annual gross domestic product, and the costs are estimated at approximately SEK 100 billion ($9.4 billion) for one reactor.
However, there is also the possibility that the government is basing its plans on a flawed demand forecast as it prepares to electrify everything.
Aurora Energy Research Ltd., which advises governments and utilities, forecasts 70 percent consumption increase by 2045 And Staffan Bergh, head of analysis at the consulting company Bodecker Partners AB, indicates an estimated increase of 50 percent.