Record increases in global temperatures in 2024
Global temperatures in 2024 were 1.28 degrees Celsius higher than the baseline level of the 20th century (1951–1980), which exceeds the record set in 2023. The new record was set after 15 consecutive months (from June 2023 to August 2024 r.) unprecedented series of heatwaves and monthly temperature records.
The importance of climate change according to NASA
“Once again, the temperature record has been broken – 2024 was the hottest year since records began in 1880.” – he said NASA administrator Bill Nelson. “With record temperatures and wildfires currently threatening our facilities and employees in California, understanding our changing planet has never been more important,” he said.
The Paris Agreement and current climate change
NASA scientists sthey also estimate that the Earth in 2024 was about 1.47 degrees Celsius warmer than the average in the mid-19th century (1850–1900). For more than half of 2024, average temperatures were more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the baseline, and the annual average, with mathematical uncertainties, could exceed this level for the first time.
“Paris Agreement regarding climate change outlines efforts to keep temperature increases below 1.5 degrees Celsius in the long term. By comparison, temperatures during Earth’s warm periods three million years ago — when sea levels were more than 20 meters higher than today — were only about 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) NASA in New York. “We are halfway to Pliocene-level temperatures in just 150 years,” he pointed out.
The impact of greenhouse gases on the warming trend
Scientists concluded that warming trend observed in recent decades is driven by trapping heat greenhouse gasessuch as carbon dioxide Whether methane. According to a recent international analysis, in 2022 and 2023 the Earth recorded record increase in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have risen from pre-industrial levels in the 18th century of about 278 parts per million to about 420 parts per million today.
The role of NASA and federal agencies in climate monitoring
NASA and other federal agencies regularly collect data on greenhouse gas concentrations and emissions. This data is available from the US Greenhouse Gas Center, a multidisciplinary effort that consolidates information from observations and models, with the goal of providing policymakers with a single place for data collection and analysis.
Natural climate fluctuations and their impact on global temperatures
Temperatures individual years may be influenced natural climate fluctuationssuch as El Niño and La Niñawhich alternate they heat and cool the tropical Pacific Ocean. A strong El Niño that began in the fall of 2023 has raised global temperatures above previous records.
As Schmidt pointed out, the heat wave that began in 2023 continued to exceed expectations in 2024, even though El Niño had weakened. Scientists are working to identify contributing factors, including possible ones climatic effects of the Tonga volcano eruption in January 2022 and reducing pollutants that could change cloud cover and how solar energy reflects back into space.
Long-term effects of climate change
“Not every year will break records, but the long-term trend is clear,” Schmidt noted. “We’re already seeing the impact in the form of extreme rainfallheatwaves and increased risk of floodingphenomena that will intensify as long as emissions continue,” he warned.
NASA methodology in analyzing Earth’s surface temperature
NASA conducts analysis using data regarding air temperature at the Earth’s surfacecollected from tens of thousands of weather stations, as well as data on sea surface temperature obtained by instruments on ships and buoys. This data is analyzed using methods that take into account the varying distances between temperature measurement stations around the world and and “urban heat island” effectswhich may disturb the calculations.
“When changes in climate occur, they are first seen on a global average, then on a continental scale, and then on a regional scale. Now we see them at the local level,” Schmidt noted. “The changes taking place in people’s daily weather experiences have become abundantly clear,” he added.
Confirmation of the warming trend by independent analyses
Independent analyzes conducted by the US agency NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), Berkeley Earth, the Hadley Center (part of the British Met Office dealing with weather forecasting) and Copernicus Climate Services in Europe also showed that global surface temperatures in 2024 were the highest since modern records began. These scientists use many of the same temperature data in their analyses, but use different methodologies and models. Each of them shows the same ongoing warming trend.
Availability of NASA global temperature data
NASA’s full dataset of global surface temperatures, as well as details about how NASA scientists conducted the analysis, are publicly available at GISS, a NASA laboratory operated by the agency’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.(PAP)
Paweł Wernicki
