The war in Iran with a fundamental impact on Polish industries
Prolonging conflict in the region Persian Gulf may have a fundamental impact on the condition of Polish industries this year – said Bank Pekao analysts in a report.
The situation will be shaped by the increase in the costs of oil and gas and, consequently, also of electricity and materials. They would be most vulnerable to these factors sectors with high energy intensity, such as metal, mineral, chemical, paper and wood processing, as well as transport and construction – analysts pointed out. In agriculture, the key challenge may be the prices of fertilizers, the economics of production of which are strongly dependent on natural gas prices. It was added that this year There may also be pressure on the margins of utilities companies.
Weakening demand in the euro zone
According to experts, a prolonged conflict may weaken demand in… euro zone. Persistently high prices of raw materials will increase inflation, leading to a slowdown in consumption and exports. For this reason, consumer goods industries with a strong exposure to EU markets, such as manufacturing electronics/household appliances furniture or textiles, may not see the long-awaited revival in 2026 – it was assessed.
Mining will benefit
According to the report, nand the mining industry may temporarily benefit from the increase in prices of raw materials, including hard coal. In turn, reduced competition from the Middle East and higher prices of semi-finished products may benefit, among others, small segments of the chemical industry. Experts pointed out, among others, that they are relatively resistant to the negative effects of the crisis and present moderately favorable prospects. business services, information and communication and waste management.
A perspective for service industries
In the baseline scenario presented in the report, which assumes a quick end to the Middle East conflict, the service industries have the best prospects: accommodation and catering, information and communication and business services. The latter, according to analysts, benefit from solid domestic demand and greater flexibility in pricing policy. Industrial processing and construction, despite the expected economic improvement, will remain the most sensitive to potential cost and demand shocks – even in the baseline scenario.
Increase in material costs
According to the report, a big challenge for companies this year may turn out to be an increase in the costs of materials, driven not only by the conflict in the Persian Gulf, but also by the intensification of infrastructure investments and the implementation of the CBAM border tax, which will result in an increase in prices semi-finished metal and chemical products imported from outside the EU. According to experts this year Labor costs, on the other hand, should be less of a problem for companies. Wage pressure will weaken, although it will still remain a significant challenge, especially in the processing and construction industries, they emphasized.
However, a positive development impulse in 2026, rather resistant to current events, will be – according to analysts – the expected and already visible revival of public investments, driven by EU funds.
The US and Israel have been bombing Iran since February 28, which in response attacks Israel and the Persian Gulf countries, hitting both American bases located there and civilian targets.
