Gasoline is up, the zloty is losing value – what awaits drivers?

Luc Williams

“Even though retail prices fell last week, the increases recorded in wholesale in recent days will not allow them to continue. Especially since forecast of changes in wholesale fuel prices for the next week is not favorable,” Refleks analysts forecast on Friday. In their opinion, the weakening of the Polish zloty and the increase in prices on the ARA market provide space for further wholesale price increases in the new week.

According to Refleks data current fuel prices after discounts are respectively: unleaded petrol 95 – PLN 6.45/l (-5 gr/l), unleaded 98 – PLN 7.19/l (-5 gr/l), diesel fuel PLN 6.46/l (-4 gr/l). /l) and autogas PLN 2.70/l (-2 groszy/l).

Price changes at gas stations

“It is unlikely that the current price level will be sustainable in the long term. Unfortunately, next week we expect price increases of several cents at at least some stations in response to increases in wholesale fuel prices,” analysts said.

They added that compared to last year's prices, drivers pay more for Pb98 petrol and diesel oil – by 10 and 21 groszy per liter, respectively, and Pb95 petrol and autogas are cheaper than a year ago – by 4 and 20 groszy per liter, respectively.

Brent crude oil is becoming more expensive

Analysts noted that prices for the August series of Brent crude oil contracts rose to around $83. per barrel, thus the upward correction of the last wave of price declines has already reached over USD 6 per barrel. “On Friday morning, Brent crude oil cost approximately USD 82.40 per barrel and is less than USD 3 per barrel more expensive than a week ago,” they pointed out.

IEA and OPEC forecasts

As reported by Reflex, the International Energy Agency (IEA), in accordance with its latest forecasts, expects that world demand for oil and fuels will stabilize at around 106 million barrels per day by the end of this decade. “In 2023, the average level of global fuel consumption was at the annual average level of 102.2 million barrels per day. Additionally, the IEA revised down by 0.1 million barrels per day to 0.96 million barrels per day the forecast of the global growth rate of oil consumption in this year,” analysts said. They emphasized that, according to the latest forecasts, global consumption of oil and fuels is expected to reach 103.2 million barrels per day this year. “The IEA expects a similar rate of consumption growth (1 million barrels per day) in 2025,” they noted. They also added that OPEC, in turn, forecasts a much higher growth rate in global oil consumption: 2.25 million barrels per day this year and 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025. (PAP)

author: Anna Bytniewska


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