The cyclical WallStreet conference organized by the Association of Individual Investors is not only an opportunity to meet, but also to learn the opinions of experts and discuss the most important and current topics regarding the broadly understood market.
photo: press materials
Noble Securities celebrates its 30th anniversary this year. A special proposal has been prepared for this occasion. Investors participating in the WallStreet conference could take advantage of a unique opportunity and talk 1:1 with analysts:
- June 7 with Sobiesław Kozłowski, who specializes in market analysis in a broad sense, and also analyzes selected listed companies with the highest liquidity and
- June 8 with Mateusz Chrzanowski, specializing in the analysis of companies from the industrial, GameDev and automotive sectors.
– Investors were very curious about the situation of companies that have recently generated high rates of return. There were also discussions about the Polish gaming market, in particular the possible release date of the next “The Witcher” or the sales potential of “The Alters”. We also talked about the prospects for industrial and raw material companies resulting from the economic situation in the USA and Europe and the policies of the Fed and the ECB, which are still waiting for an improvement in the global industry, as well as for the acceleration of investments financed from the KPO or the new perspective of the EU budget – says Mateusz Chrzanowski, analyst at Noble Securities.
During the three days of the WallStreet conference, many participants took advantage of the opportunity to talk to experts at the Noble Securities stand.
– We are one of the oldest brokerage houses on the Polish market. What distinguishes us is an individual approach to the client and a wide offer that allows for portfolio diversification. – says Sławomir Groszek, director of the Branch Network Department at Noble Securities. – At Noble Securities it is possible to open not only a brokerage account, but also an individual retirement account (IKE) and an individual retirement security account (IKZE). The client can also benefit from investment advice(and), with appropriate capital from PLN 5,000. zloty. It is worth adding that free funds waiting to be invested earn interest(1) – adds Sławomir Groszek.
During the WallStreet conference, the director of the Analysis and Advisory Department of Noble Securities, Sobiesław Kozłowski, took part in a panel discussion entitled: “Commodities, currencies, shares. What to invest in in the second half of 2024?”, and in an interview with DGP he presented his forecasts for the second half of the year.
In the presented analyses, he stated that, according to the most likely scenario, the main indexes of the Warsaw Stock Exchange have already reached their maximums this year. Moreover, he also pointed out that a good strategy for the second half of the year would be to increase the share of cash and bonds at the expense of shares.
Quotations on the Warsaw Stock Exchange have been in a downward trend since May 20, 2024, when the index of the largest companies reached 2,600 points.
– I assume, 60%. the probability that the stock market has already reached its peak as part of the upward trend that began in October 2022. Therefore, we have already reached this year's maximum and declines will prevail in the second half of the year. Their pace will be determined by the data arriving on the market, says Sobiesław Kozłowski. One of the arguments that the peak of the upward trend has already been reached is the behavior of the banking sector's rates during the publication of the results for the first quarter.
– Banks have so far been the growth leader on the WSE. The reaction to the publication of financial results, which were usually better than expected, was a decline in prices. This shows that we are dealing with a distribution of shares after a long-term growth – says Sobiesław Kozłowski.
In the last 12 months, the WIG Banki index increased by 67%, reaching the level of 14.1 thousand in the second half of April. points, the highest in history. At the beginning of June, the industry index was over 10 percent higher. lower.
– At the moment, there are no companies that could replace banks as leaders. The value of WIG20 may be increased to some extent by raw materials companies, but this does not seem to be enough to maintain the upward trend, says the analyst.
One of the companies with the strongest appreciation in WIG20 this year is KGHM Polska Miedź, whose prices increased by 15%. This is primarily a reaction to the rising price of copper on global markets. Hopes for accelerated economic growth in China, which accounts for more than half of the world's consumption of this metal, meant that in the second half of May, copper prices for delivery in three months reached the level of 11.1 thousand on the London market. USD/t, the highest in history. Forecasts by investment banks indicate that in the coming months the price of the raw material may reach PLN 12,000. hole. However, the share of KGHM shares in the WIG20 portfolio slightly exceeds 6 percent, while banks together with the insurance company have almost 45 percent.
According to Sobiesław Kozłowski, the not-so-good prospects of the Warsaw Stock Exchange are also determined by the visible outflow of capital from emerging markets.
– Capital flows mainly towards the USA, where technology companies are still breaking their quotation records. In the first week of June, the European Central Bank decided to initiate a cycle of interest rate cuts, which resulted in a sharp weakening of the euro against the dollar. In turn, the zloty weakened in relation to both of these currencies. The visible change in the trend on the dollar/zloty chart means that the rates of return on the domestic market, expressed in dollars, will decline, thus discouraging foreign capital from investing on the WSE – explains Sobiesław Kozłowski.
The analyst points out that despite significant increases in prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, which have been going on for over a year and a half, there is still no inflow of capital to funds investing in shares. This means that there will be no one to compensate for the potential outflow of foreign capital.
The analyst adds that an argument for the decline in prices on the WSE is also the traditionally weak return rate statistics in the third quarter. The three months starting in July and ending in September brought declines in the WIG20 index in four cases out of the last five years.
– Currently, these negative statistics are particularly important because shares have had an above-average good period. Thus, the spring is more tense – says Sobiesław Kozłowski.
The analyst believes that the implementation of a negative scenario for the stock market will not mean a decline in the prices of all companies listed on the WSE. Companies that improve their financial results can count on investor interest despite the general market downturn.
Sobiesław Kozłowski also allows for other possible scenarios for the behavior of the stock market.
– It seems that if the declines in the coming sessions are quite strong, WIG20 drops below the level of 2,300 points quite quickly and the mood becomes very negative quite quickly, there will be another upward wave. In such a case, WIG20 may make up for a significant part of the losses and even return to the May peak. I attribute approximately 30% to this scenario. probability – explains the analyst.
This market behavior does not contradict the basic scenario, according to which the long-term upward trend is ending on the stock market. Sobiesław Kozłowski adds that economists' forecasts indicate that the economic recovery is to peak in the first quarter of 2025. And since events on the financial market usually precede trends in the real economy by several quarters, the second half of the second quarter of 2024 ., is a good time to establish a peak on the stock market.
– The least likely scenario, to which I assign 10%. probability is a continuation of the bull market on the WSE. This would mean that we are in a higher-order growth trend and then the indices could significantly exceed the May records, says a Noble Securities analyst.
The above material constitutes promotional material for Noble Securities SA and does not constitute a recommendation of investment behavior. Investing in financial instruments may involve high investment risk.
(1) Detailed information about the investment advisory service at Noble Securities is available at https://noblesecurities.pl/dom-maklerski/doradztwo-inwestycyjne
