Fuel price increases at the beginning of the holidays
“We will probably start the first week of the holidays with increases of up to PLN 10 on average liter of gasoline and diesel fuel and up to 5 groszy per liter autogasand ultimately the prices of gasoline and diesel oil may increase by 20 to 30 groszy per liter in the following weeks of the holidays,” Refleks analysts predict on Friday.
They pointed out that holidays begin at a clear moment increase in prices of gasoline and diesel oil on the wholesale marketafter prices at gas stations have been falling over the past few weeks.
“As of June 20, 2024, we pay for fuel at stations in the country as follows: for unleaded petrol PLN 95 – PLN 6.47/l, for unleaded petrol PLN 98 – PLN 7.21/l, for diesel oil – PLN 6.49/l autogas – PLN 2.70/l. This is 2-3 cents more per liter than a week ago, but the price recovery at gas stations is still ahead of us,” analysts said.
Comparison of fuel prices year to year in Poland and the EU
They pointed out that last year, at the beginning of the holidays, drivers paid on average 3 and 19 groszy more per liter of Pb95 petrol and autogas, and 29 groszy less per liter of diesel oil. “These year-on-year changes coincide with changes in average prices in EU countries. The latest available data shows that the average price of a liter of unleaded 95 fuel (calculated in PLN/l) in the EU is 1 grosz lower, and diesel oil is 8 grosz higher than a year ago,” they added.
Experts reminded that average diesel price in the summer of 2023 it was PLN 6.34/l. “After the holidays in the period before the parliamentary elections, diesel cost on average PLN 6.18/l. For 95 unleaded petrol in the same period, the average levels were PLN 6.58 and PLN 6.07/l, respectively. Especially in the case of diesel oil, it will be difficult to achieve such levels,” they said.
Stability of Brent oil prices and potential steps of the US administration
Refleks analysts indicated that the prices of the August series of contracts at Brent crude oil on Friday morning they were stable. They added that oils and gasolines on the ARA market were priced at USD 2-3 per barrel. During the week, the price of Brent crude oil increased by approximately USD 3 per tonne. “The US presidential administration is not satisfied with the level of gasoline prices on the American market, therefore it does not rule out the release of strategic crude oil reserves during this year’s summer season in order to reduce prices or limit their possible further increase,” they noted, stating that the average retail price of gasoline in the USA, according to the latest EIA data, it is currently USD 3,435. per gallon, i.e. approximately PLN 3.70/l. The share of taxes in the price of gasoline in the USA is approximately 14 percent, and in the EU it is on average 51 percent.
The EU approves a new package of sanctions against the Russian LNG sector
Analysts noted that European Union reached an agreement and approved it on June 20 this year. The 14th package of sanctions imposed for the first time in Russian LNG sector.
“It will be introduced a complete ban on the re-export of LNG from EU ports to markets around the world. Russia in target re-export of LNG to Asian markets mainly uses Belgian LNG terminal in the port of Zeebrugge. For Russia, the sanctions mean a potential extension of transport routes, an increase in costs and the need to use icebreakers to transport LNG,” analysts explained.
The EU plan to completely stop importing fossil fuels from Russia by 2027
They noted that for now, EU sanctions do not cover a ban on the import of natural gas and LNG from Russia to the EU. “In 2023, the main recipients of Russian LNG among EU countries were France, Spain and Belgium. However, the European Commission wants to completely abandon the import of any fossil fuels from Russia by the end of 2027,” the experts recalled.
Record consumption of fossil fuels in 2023 driven by China
In Refleks’ commentary, it was pointed out that the Energy Institute (EI) reports a new world record for fossil fuel consumption in 2023. “China remains the driving force behind the growth in fossil fuel consumption. In 2023 increasing demand for oil and coal in China was higher than in the rest of the world,” they added.
Increased sales of electric vehicles and the consumption of traditional fuels in Europe and the USA
Experts indicated that, according to EI increase in sales of electric vehicles does not yet have a significant impact on the consumption of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the USA. “In 2023, the total consumption of gasoline and diesel in these markets decreased by 1 percent, while the demand for gasoline alone increased by 5 percent in Europe and 1.5 percent in the USA,” analysts said. (PAP)
author: Anna Bytniewska
