GlobalData forecast published on Wednesday lowered its forecasts for the share of the US electric vehicle market for 2030 from 33%. up to 28 percent. Analysts cited the election of Trump as the US president as the reason.
“The U.S. transition to electric vehicles will be hindered under the Trump administration,” Jeff Schuster, vice president of automotive research at GlobalData, said in a note. In his opinion, Trump’s focus on lowering oil prices and weakening exhaust emission standards could reduce the share of the electric vehicle market by 15%. up to 20 percent
Billions of investments at risk
Automakers have invested billions of dollars in battery and electric vehicle factories to bring more electric models to market and meet U.S. regulations governing vehicle efficiency and emissions.
Currently, approximately $129 billion in North American electric vehicle investment through 2027 is ‘at risk’said Mark Wakefield, automotive leader at consulting firm AlixPartners, in an interview. The $7,500 tax credit that consumers can receive for purchasing an electric vehicle made in North America could also be at risk.
Automakers will continue to slow spending on electric vehicles and delay or cancel new battery-powered models, Wakefield said. At the same time, they will look for ways to increase production of profitable gasoline-powered vehicles by converting electric vehicle plants into facilities that can also build hybrids.
Joe Biden’s bills are difficult to withdraw
Trump will have difficulty rolling back President Joe Biden’s inflation reduction bill, which has spurred a construction boom of electric vehicle and battery factories, many in Republican-leaning states.
However, larger changes are likely in the pipeline fuel economy regulationsWakefield said. During his first term, Trump relaxed those rules and promised to end what he calls the “electric vehicle mandate” on the first day of his second term. But will he keep his word? Changing such policies requires a long process that may take months or even years. But thanks to Republican victories in the Capitol, he will be able to do this at least in part. “Let’s not expect an immediate, drastic, apocalyptic change overnight,” said James Lucier, managing director at research group Capital Alpha Partners. “But there is always a strong possibility that some portions of the IRA will be restricted or phased out.”
