The conflict in the Middle East is driving up fuel prices
The non-governmental organization T&E (European Federation for Transport & Environment) promoting clean transport has published a report which shows that the war in Iran has a much greater impact on the operating costs of combustion cars than electric cars. “Refueling an average petrol car costs €14.20 per 100 km, an increase of €3.80related to the conflict in the Middle East. The average cost of charging an electric vehicle was EUR 6.50 per 100 km, an increase of EUR 0.70. This is related to the higher price of electricity caused by more expensive fuel,” we read.
In the opinion of an expert from e-petrol.pl, Dr. Jakub Bogucki, the prolonged conflict around the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting the increase in fossil fuel prices may turn out to be a “catalyst for thinking about energy transformation” and may affect the electric car market. In his opinion, the basis of this process will not be ecological issues, but “diversification of energy solutions.”
Oil stuck in the Strait of Hormuz
February 28 this year Israel and the US have launched airstrikes against targets in Iran. In revenge Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz – a route through which approximately 20% of the world flows annually under peace conditions. oil consumed in the world. The blockade of the strait contributed to the growth of oil on world markets. In response, the International Energy Agency recommended the release of a record 400 million barrels of oil from the reserves of member states.
Electric cars instead of combustion cars?
A report published by London-based think tank Ember states that “replacing imported crude oil used in transport road electric vehicleswould reduce importers’ bills by more than one third, or approximately USD 600 billion. annually“.
“Based on global sales of electric vehicles, we estimate that their operation reduced the use of crude oil in the world in 2025 by 1.7 million barrels per daycompared to 1.3 million barrels in 2024. This number is not yet close to the 20 million barrels of oil per day of the total oil demand flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, but it is still almost the same as Iran’s 2.4 million barrels of exports per day,” Ember experts calculated.
Bogucki admitted in an interview with PAP that even in the perspective of a long conflict in the Middle East, there will be no sudden reduction in demand for oil, despite the unstable market security and high fuel bills at gas stations. – It won’t be the case that we will all switch to electric cars overnight, especially when it comes to truck transport. The technological level and the power supply network, even in the case of Poland, are not good enough to easily switch to electricity in heavy transport, as is possible in passenger transport – explained the expert.
There will probably be no reduction in demand for oil
– There will probably be no reduction in demand for oil, because those who previously needed it for heating or transport purposes will still need it. Switching to alternative power systems is time-consuming and cost-intensive, so no one will make such a decision under the impulse of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, said Bogucki.
However, according to the Ember report, since the 2022 energy crisis – related to the start of the war in Ukraine and the introduction of sanctions against Russia – “the prices of electric vehicles have become more and more similar to those of combustion cars, and their sales have doubled since then.” “In many countries – especially in developing Asian economies – the rapid adoption of electric vehicles is already slowing growth in oil demand,” the report said.
China will benefit the most
Bogucki pointed out that the development of the electric car market is beneficial for China, which is their leading producer. – I don’t know if the race on the electric car market is over and if we can talk about the winner, but China is definitely a leader – he noted.
This is confirmed by data from the Ember report. According to them, last year in China there was an increase of over 50% for the first time. share in sales of electric vehicles. It was added that in 39 countries the share in sales of electric vehicles exceeds 10%. This includes: o Vietnam (38%) and Uruguay (27%), where the share of electric vehicle sales was higher than the EU average in 2025 (26%). Meanwhile, more electric vehicles are sold in Thailand (21%), India (4%), Mexico (6%) and Brazil (9%) than in Japan (3%). In Indonesia, sales of electric vehicles reached 15% in 2025, overtaking the United States for the first time (10%), the report calculated.
